Mai ka hopena o Ianuali a hiki i ka waena o Pepeluali, ua hoʻomaka ka piʻi wikiwiki ʻana o nā kumukūʻai o ka pulupulu ICE, me ka piʻi ʻana o ka ʻaelike nui mai kahi o 82 keneta a ʻoi aku ma mua o 96 keneta. I loko o kēia wā, ʻaʻohe mea maikaʻi kūikawā i ka mākeke pulupulu, akā ʻo nā kumu a me ka ʻaoʻao macro he mau nūhou bearish nui. Ma lalo o ke kua o ka emi nui ʻana o nā waihona a me nā waiwai o ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa, a me ka emi nui ʻana o ka manaʻolana o ka hōʻemi ʻana i ka uku paneʻe o ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa, ua puka mai nā kumukūʻai o ka pulupulu mai kahi nalu o nā kumukūʻai e piʻi ana "lone Wolf", ka mea e manaʻo ai nā mea komo o ka mākeke he mea kupaianaha.
Ua ʻōlelo nā loiloi e pili ana i ka wā e hiki mai ana o ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa ʻaʻohe kumu bullish maopopo o ka mākeke pulupulu i hala koke nei, ʻoiai ke hoʻomau nei nā kālā e huki i ka pā, ka nui o ke kālepa a me nā kūlana wehe i hoʻokuʻu ʻia i ka lā, he paʻakikī ke wehewehe i kēia hana ʻano ʻē, malia paha ua aʻo nā kālā ʻaʻole maopopo ka mākeke i ke kūlana. A hiki i Pepeluali 18, ua hoʻokuʻu ka ʻAha Kūkākūkā Pupulu Lahui o ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa (NCC) i kona manaʻo e kanu i ka ʻāina pulupulu. Wahi a ka noiʻi NCC, ʻo ka manaʻo o ka pulupulu US i ka makahiki 2024 he 9.8 miliona ʻeka, he emi ʻana o 3.7% mai ka makahiki i hala, he ʻokoʻa loa ia mai ka wānana mua o ka Cotton Farmers Magazine a me ka USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum. Ma mua, manaʻoʻiʻo nā loiloi haole ua piʻi wikiwiki ke kumukūʻai o ka pulupulu, mai ka manaʻo kiʻi loea ua kokoke i ka piko kiʻekiʻe loa o ka mākeke, manaʻo ʻia he kūʻē ikaika ma 95-96 US. Ma Pepeluali 20, me nā mea maikaʻi i manaʻo ʻole ʻia o ka emi ʻana o ka manaʻo o ka NCC United States, ua hāʻule nui nā ICE futures ma hope o ka wehe ʻana o Pepeluali 20, a i ke awakea o Pepeluali 20, ua hāʻule ma mua o 200 mau helu, ua hāʻule ka haʻahaʻa loa i 92 keneta.
Wahi a ka USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum, e pāpālua ka hana honua a me ke koi i ka makahiki 2024/25, a ʻoi aku ka manaʻolana o ka wānana no ke koi pulupulu. Me ka hoʻomaikaʻi ʻana o ka macro economy, ka ʻai ʻana o ka waihona kaulahao ʻoihana a me ka hoʻonui ʻana o ka lako pulupulu, manaʻo ʻia e emi iho ka hoʻohana ʻana i ka pulupulu a hoʻi hou, a manaʻo ʻia e piʻi iki nā kumukūʻai pulupulu. Eia naʻe, ʻoiai ke manaʻo nei ka NCC e emi ka ʻāina pulupulu o ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa, ua piʻi nui nā kumukūʻai pulupulu ma hope o ka hoʻokuʻu ʻia ʻana o ke anamanaʻo, a ʻoi aku ka nui o ka hiki ke hoʻonui ʻia ka ʻāina lūlū hana i ka wā ma hope. I ka manawa like, me ka hoʻomaikaʻi ʻana o ke aniau ma ka ʻāina hana pulupulu o ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa, ʻoi aku ka haʻahaʻa o ka nui o ka haʻalele ʻana o ka pulupulu o ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa i kēia makahiki ma mua o nā makahiki ʻelua i hala, no laila ua kiʻekiʻe loa ka hiki ke hoʻonui nui ʻia ka hana pulupulu o ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa. Wahi a ka wānana o ka USDA Outlook Forum o kēia manawa, manaʻo ʻia ka hana pulupulu US o ka makahiki aʻe he 16 miliona mau bales, ʻoi aku ka kiʻekiʻe ma mua o 12.4 miliona mau bales o kēia makahiki. Wahi a ka hōʻike ʻeka o ka manaʻo o ka NCC, manaʻo ʻia ka hana ʻana o ka pulupulu US he 14.6 miliona mau bale, ʻoi aku hoʻi ke kiʻekiʻe ma mua o kēia makahiki.
I ke ʻano o ka lako pulupulu, ʻoiai ka piʻi ʻana o ka lako pulupulu o ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa, ʻo ka nui o ka hiki ke hoʻōla hou ʻia ke koi pulupulu he mea nui loa ia i ke ʻano o ke kumukūʻai pulupulu. ʻOiai inā e hoʻomaikaʻi ka macro environment, e lōʻihi ka manawa e hoʻōla hou ai ke koi. Mai ke kūlana i hala koke nei, ʻoiai ua pau ka ʻeli ʻana o ka waihona ma hope, ua hoʻomaka ka hoʻopiha hou ʻana o ke kaulahao ʻoihana, akā i kēia manawa ua mamao loa ia mai ka hiki ke kākoʻo i kēlā kumukūʻai pulupulu kiʻekiʻe. Wahi a ka manaʻo o ka mākeke haole, ua māmā loa ka mākeke kiko pulupulu honua i ka wā o ka Spring Festival, ʻoi aku ka haʻahaʻa o ka pae noiʻi hale hana ma mua o ke kumukūʻai pulupulu, a ʻaʻole i mālama ke kumukūʻai olonā honua i ka wikiwiki o ke kumukūʻai pulupulu, inā ʻaʻole hiki ke hōʻoia ʻia ka loaʻa kālā o nā hale hana i nā pule e hiki mai ana, e paʻakikī ke mālama i ke kumukūʻai pulupulu kiʻekiʻe.
Puna: Pūnaewele Pulupulu Kina
Ka manawa hoʻouna: Pepeluali-21-2024